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Remember the movie National Lampoon’s Vegas Vacation, when gambling fever consumes Chevy Chase’s character, Clark W. Griswold? He goes on a losing streak to beat all losing streaks while his son, Rusty, wins four cars by playing the slot machines. Maybe Clark would have done better if he had read Probability For Dummies! In this article, you discover the basic ideas behind slot machines and how they work, so that you can get past the myths and develop a strategy based on sound probability.
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Understanding average payout
When casinos advertise that their slot machines pay out an average of 90 percent, the fine print they don’t want you to read says that you lose 10 cents from each dollar you put into the machines in the long term. (In probability terms, this advertisement means that your expected winnings are minus 10 cents on every dollar you spend every time the money goes through the machines.)
Suppose you start with $100 and bet a dollar at a time, for example. After inserting all $100 into the slot, 100 pulls later you’ll end up on average with $90, because you lose 10 percent of your money. If you run the $90 back through the machine, you’ll end up with 90 percent of it back, which is 0.90 x 90 = $81. If you run that amount through in 81 pulls, you’ll have $72.90 afterward (0.90 x 81 = 72.90). If you keep going for 44 rounds, on average, the money will be gone, unless you have the luck of Rusty Griswold!
How many pulls on the machine does your $100 give you at this rate? Each time you have less money to run through the machine, so you have fewer pulls left. If you insert $1 at a time, you can expect 972 total pulls in the long term with these average payouts (that’s the total pulls in 44 rounds). But keep in mind that casinos are designing slot machines to go faster and faster between spins. Some are even doing away with the handles and tokens by using digital readouts on gaming cards that you put into the machines. The faster machines can play up to 25 spins per hour, and 972 spins divided by 25 spins per minute is 38.88 minutes. You don’t have a very long time to enjoy your $100 before it’s gone!
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The worst part? Casinos often advertise that their “average payouts” are even as high as 95 percent. But beware: That number applies only to certain machines, and the casinos don’t rush to tell you which ones. You really need to read or ask about the fine print before playing. You can also try to check the information on the machine to see if it lists its payouts. (Don’t expect this information to be front and center.)
Implementing a simple strategy for slots
Advice varies regarding whether you should play nickel, quarter, or dollar slot machines and whether you should max out the number of coins you bet or not (you usually get to choose between one and five coins to bet on a standard slot machine). In this section, you’ll find a few tips for getting the most bang for your buck (or nickel) when playing slot machines.
Basically, when it comes to slot machines, strategy boils down to this: Know the rules, your probability of winning, and the expected payouts; dispel any myths; and quit while you’re ahead. If you win $100, cash out $50 and play with the rest, for example. After you lose a certain amount (determined by you in advance), don’t hesitate to quit. Go to the all-you-can-eat buffet and try your luck with the casino food; odds are it’s pretty good!
Choosing among nickel, quarter, and dollar machines
The machines that have the higher denominations usually give the best payouts. So, between the nickel and quarter slots, for example, the quarter slots generally give better payouts. However, you run the risk of getting in way over your head in a hurry, so don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. The bottom line: Always choose a level that you have fun playing at and that allows you to play for your full set time limit.
Deciding how many coins to play at a time
When deciding on the number of coins you should play per spin, keep in mind that more is sometimes better. If the slot machine gives you more than two times the payout when you put in two times the number of coins, for example, you should max it out instead of playing single coins because you increase your chances of winning a bigger pot, and the expected value is higher. If the machine just gives you k times the payout for k coins, it doesn’t matter if you use the maximum number of coins. You may as well play one at a time until you can make some money and leave so your money lasts a little longer.
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For example, say a quarter machine pays 10 credits for the outcome 777 when you play only a single quarter, but if you play two quarters, it gives you 25 credits for the same outcome. And if you play the maximum number of quarters (say, four), a 777 results in 1,000 credits. You can see that playing four quarters at a time gives you a better chance of winning a bigger pot in the long run (if you win, that is) compared to playing a single quarter at a time for four consecutive tries.
The latest slot machine sweeping the nation is the so-called “penny slot machine.” Although it professes to require only a penny for a spin, you get this rate only if you want to bet one penny at a time. The machines entice you to bet way more than one penny at a time; in fact, on some machines, you can bet more than 1,000 coins (called lines) on each spin — $10 a shot here, folks. Because these machines take any denomination of paper bill, as well as credit cards, your money can go faster on penny machines than on dollar machines because you can quickly lose track of your spendings. Pinching pennies may not be worth it after all!
A 2011 Massachusetts law allows for the expansion of gambling, including slot machines. That law is now on the November 2014 election ballot for potential repeal.
This is a real opportunity for voters to consider where slot machine income comes from. Also, since slot machines are the most addictive form of gambling, Massachusetts voters should consider the source of gambling revenues, and whether slot machines are fair to gamblers. Let’s see what current research shows.
Slot machine profits
The industry estimate for slot machine “profits” is around $100,000 per machine per year of player losses. (See, for example, slot machine revenue in nearby Connecticut.)
These losses add up fast. A gambler who plays for just three hours one evening per week, and makes fairly small wagers of $1 per spin, would lose approximately $1,000 per month, or approximately $12,000 per year, on average.
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This is a very high cost of entertainment for what would appear to many as a relatively low wager per spin and relatively small number of hours per week. For many patrons casino gambling is much more expensive than going to big-name concerts or professional sporting events such as the Red Sox, Bruins, Celtics, or Patriots.
Of greatest concern are players with a gambling problem, or those who may develop a problem in the future. Approximately 50% of slot machine revenue is derived from players with moderate and severe gambling problems, who make up only 3%-4% of the general population.
Such players have very high losses which cause very significant negative consequences for them and their families. In the extreme cases, such as Scott Stevens of Ohio, things can quickly spiral out of control.
Stevens’ case is particularly tragic: he embezzled from his employer and eventually committed suicide. He was a husband and father with a senior role in accounting and no known problems aside from gambling. But once he started playing slots he couldn’t stop.
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Characteristics of slot machines
Slot machine manufacturers design the gambling experience to confuse and manipulate players’ emotions in an effort to keep players gambling. This is called maximizing ‘time on device’. Many of these manipulations are not readily revealed to the player. Here are some examples drawn from my research:
The cost of play of slot machines is hidden from the player. An estimate of the per-hour cost is 50 to 100 times the cost of a single spin, but this varies depending on the settings of the game.
Worse yet, the same game may be on multiple machines in a casino and programmed to pay out differently on each. Thus, even if a player knew the cost of play on one machine, that knowledge would not necessarily transfer to the same game elsewhere in the same casino. Players start to incorrectly guess how slots work and guess at the chance of making money by playing the machines. Obviously, there is randomness involved in how much a player loses at any given session, but slot machine players cannot even predict how expensive a session might be.
On modern slot machines, half of ‘wins’ are actually net losses. An example would be a $1 bet with a 30¢ payoff. This is a loss of 70¢, but the machine shows bright graphics and makes sounds announcing a win. Researchers call these events Losses Disguised as Wins (LDWs) and have clearly shown that players experience these as actual wins, giving the players the (incorrect) positive feelings that they are winning. Players who have many losses-disguised-as-wins overestimate the number of actual wins they receive in a session: they psychologically encode these net losses as actual wins.
Slot machines create ‘near miss’ outcomes: losses that appear close to jackpots. One trick to make this happen is to have the jackpot symbol to be surprisingly rare on the final reel. Near misses lead to prolonged play, and heavier losses.
Loss disguised as a win for states?
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There are also serious concerns about the financial aspects of slot machine facilities, particularly if slots are being claimed to be bringing good revenues into a state’s treasury.
For example, at many casinos slots players can apply for a loan. This seems predatory on the casino’s part as the casino knows that the player is out of money, and yet the casino lends the player money to gamble, knowing the player will likely lose that money back to them. Such predatory lending should be forbidden.
Finally, research shows that bringing casinos with slots to within 30 miles of major cities will usually boost the number of people with a gambling problem in that city. The best current research shows that introducing slots to Massachusetts, without working to ameliorate their harms, will have a high potential for causing significant negative effects on communities in the Commonwealth.
_This article is part of a series on gambling in America. You can read the rest of the series here _
The Illinois Gaming Board hasn't announced when it will allow casinos to reopen or when video-gaming machines will be turned on at bars, restaurants and gaming parlors, but officials are. /asian-based-slot-machine-games-at-rubys-in-decatur-il.html.